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Land cover change from renewable energy development in southern California is receiving increasing attention due to potential impacts on protected area conservation, endangered species, and greenhouse gas emissions. This study was designed to quantify and map, for the first time, variations desert vegetation canopy density and related growth rates using 30 consecutive years of Landsat satellite image data across the Lower Colorado Desert. The time-series for mean normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values sampled from each of the three major land cover types (shrubland, barren sand dune, and developed urban) showed no significant positive or negative trend in vegetation canopy density. Three periods of significant decrease in NDVI were detected during the drought periods of 1989-1990, 2002-2003, and 2013-2015, indicating that annual precipitation has been the main controller of shrubland canopy growth and green cover. Shrubland canopy cover has been relatively stable in renewable energy development zones since the mid-2000s. NDVI change in the period after nearly all southern California solar energy developments were initiated (post-2010) could be attributed largely to topographic water flow pathways through canyons and desert washes, both in and around all solar energy development zones.

Landsat Time Series Analysis of Vegetation Changes in Solar Energy Development Areas of the Lower Colorado Desert, Southern California