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In the background of the design and construction of Smart Grid Operation Supporting System for District Power Networks, this paper established the weighted fault probability model of the overhead line which is based on equipment operating status, utility theory and fuzzy theory. In this model, the proper membership function is adopted to describe the influence of lightning, wind speed, line ice and temperature, and the outage rate of overhead line, derived from historical statistics, is amended. Based on this model, the power supply risk analysis software is developed to calculate the online risk indicators of district grid, and provide real-time decision support information based on risk theory for scheduling operations personnel.

Algorithm Study and Software Design of District Grid On-Line Risk Assessment Based on Fuzzy Theory