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The philosophy of Build-In-Reliability (BIR) or Design for Reliability (DFR) emphasizes the value of reliability prediction at a product’s conceptual design stage. Due to the lack of reliability data, reliability assessment of a new design is not usually performed at this stage. In this paper, we propose a methodology to provide the reliability insight of a new design concept. The methodology consists of three major processes: functional analysis, cognitive map and Bayesian network modeling. A case study is given to demonstrate our proposed method.

Obtaining Reliability Insights during a Product’s Conceptual Design Process through Bayesian Network Modeling