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Background  and objectiveThe cause of scoliosis remains unknown in 80-85% of adolescent patients. Treatment of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) remains a complex challenge.AimThe goal of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of different factors [age, initial Risser′s score and initial Cobb′s angle, surface electromyography (SEMG), activity of both paraspinal muscles at the apex of the curve] in the progression of AIS.Patients and methods This study included 30 patients with AIS. Full history taking and spinal and neurological examinations were carried out. Initial Cobb′s angle and Risser′s staging were determined, together with SEMG of paraspinal muscles at the curve′s apex. Reassessment of Cobb′s angle and Risser′s score was done 1 year later.Statistical analysisAnalysis of data was carried out with an IBM computer using statistical program for social science (version 18) software and services.Quantitative data were presented as mean, SD, minimum and maximum values, and range. Qualitative data were presented as number and percentage, analyzed with the χ2 -test. Analytic statistics were calculated using Student′s t-test to compare two independent means. A receiver-operating character curve was constructed using Medcalc program 3.5.Results Twenty-six girls and four boys with dorsal and dorsolumbar scoliosis were included in this study. There was significant increase in Cobb′s angle and Risser′s score. Age, Risser′s score, and SEMG Results  on the convex side were significantly correlated with progression of the curve. Cobb′s angle was the most sensitive predictor, followed by SEMG, whereas age, initial Risser′s score, and SEMG had the highest specificity as predictors.Conclusion Cobb′s angle, Risser′s score, and SEMG are specific, sensitive, and positive predictors for progression of AIS

Predictive factors for progression of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis: a 1-year study