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The ground shaking intensity used for calculating the quasi-static forces to be applied in building design according to the National Building Code of Canada (NBCC) is established by probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. The probability level for which the amplitudes of design motions are determined in the current building code, NBCC-1995, corresponds to a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years. The insurance industry has funded loss estimation studies at the University of British Columbia for a number of cities in British Columbia, including the largest, Vancouver. This city has the highest seismic hazard among the three most populated urban centres in Canada. A major objective of the studies was to provide a rational basis for discussions with government on how to cope with catastrophic losses in the region. For this reason, it was considered appropriate to use the same probability of exceedance of shaking intensity as that used in NBCC-1995. The seismic provisions of the next edition of the code, NBCC-2005, will be based on a probability level corresponding to a 2% chance of exceedance in 50 years. This paper investigates the impact of this change on the loss estimations for Vancouver. The concepts and strategies used in the Vancouver study are of wide applicability and should be of interest to others engaged in risk assessment.

Effect of earthquake probability level on loss estimations