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espanolLas pesquerias de pelagicos menores se han caracterizado por sus grandes fluctuaciones en abundancia, debido a factores ambientales, regimenes de captura, patrones de reproduccion, entre otros. Dada esta complejidad, el desarrollo de esquemas de manejo para la pesqueria de sardina requiere de la evaluacion del impacto de diferentes estrategias de manejo, considerando la incertidumbre asociada con el comportamiento biologico de los recursos y el rendimiento economico de las pesquerias. Una forma de predecir dichos cambios en la abundancia, es a traves de procesos de simulacion bajo diferentes escenarios. En este estudio, se uso un modelo bioeconomico dinamico estructurado por edad de la pesqueria de sardina del Pacifico (Sardinops sagax) de la peninsula de Baja California en Mexico para evaluar el efecto de cambios en el reclutamiento sobre diferentes variables de estado (biomasa, valor presente neto y captura). Se considero riesgo e incertidumbre asociada a parametros sensibles (mortalidad natural, precio y capturabilidad). Se empleo el enfoque precautorio para evaluar la respuesta de los responsables de tomar decisiones con diferente actitud al riesgo (adverso, neutral y buscador de riesgo) bajo diferentes escenarios, desde acceso abierto hasta restricciones en el esfuerzo pesquero. Los resultados mostraron que las estrategias de manejo que involucraron restricciones en el esfuerzo pesquero resultaron en una baja probabilidad (0-7, expresado en porcentaje) de exceder los puntos de referencia limite (PRL) comparado con aquellas bajo condiciones de acceso abierto o captura en rendimiento maximo sostenible (RMS) y cuotas de captura (13-60%). El analisis enfatiza las ventajas de utilizar un enfoque que incorpore el riesgo y la incertidumbre para la generacion de estrategias de manejo de las pesquerias pelagicas con alta exposicion a condiciones inciertas. EnglishSmall pelagic fisheries have been characterized by large fluctuations in abundance due to environmental factors, harvest regimes, and reproduction patterns, among others. Given this complexity, the development of management schemes for sardine fisheries requires an evaluation of the impact of different management strategies. The evaluation of any management scheme would need to account for the uncertainty associated with the biological behavior of resources and economic performance of the fisheries to predict changes in resource abundance through simulation of alternative scenarios. In this study, an age-structured dynamic bioeconomic model of the Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) fishery off the Baja California peninsula in Mexico was used. The model assessed the effect of changes in recruitment over several state variables (biomass, net present value and catch). An analysis of risk and uncertainty allowed the identification of sensitive parameters (natural mortality, price and catchability) and a precautionary approach was used to evaluate the response of decision-makers with different attitudes toward risk (adverse, neutral and prone) given different management scenarios, from open access to restrictions in fishing effort. Incorporation of uncertainty and risk analyses into the assessment of the sardine fishery showed that management strategies that involve restrictions on fishing effort resulted in a lower probability (0-7, expressed in percentage) of exceeding limit reference points (LRPs) than those strategies that permit conditions of open access, or that aim for catch at maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and catch quotas (13-60%). The analysis highlights the advantages of using an approach that incorporates risk and uncertainty for generating management strategies for pelagic fisheries with high exposure to uncertain conditions.

Dealing with dynamics and uncertainty of small pelagic fisheries: bioeconomic analysis of manager's responses to alternative management strategies