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We introduce the concept of weakly Markov dynamical systems. We prove for them the asymptotic convergence, along the radii of relative Lebesgue measure converging very fast to one, to the exponential law of the distribution of the the first return times to almost every shrinking ball. We prove that weakly Markov dynamical systems include such large classes of smooth dynamical systems as expanding repellers, holomorphic endomorphisms of complex projective spaces, and Axiom A diffeomorphisms (none of them are assumed to be conformal) and conformal ones such as conformal iterated function systems, conformal graph directed Markov systems, conformal expanding repellers, rational functions of the Riemann sphere, and transcendental meromorphic functions. For the conformal systems we in fact prove much more, namely that the convergence to the exponential law is along all radii. This is achieved by proving the thin annuli property.

Thin annuli property and exponential distribution of return times for weakly Markov systems