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Background The Goodman-Keyfitz-Pullum Kinship Equations estimate offspring survival for women in populations with stable levels of mortality and fertility. A separate body of literature has focused on the effects of mortality change on life expectancy. Combining these two approaches allows us to consider the effects of mortality change on offspring survival. Results The effect of an all-age mortality increase on child survival is indirectly proportional to the mean age of an average woman's surviving children. Equivalently, the effect is indirectly proportional to the mean time that a woman has spent with her surviving offspring. Generalizing for an age-specific mortality change follows life expectancy treatment. Contributions We bring together two separate traditions in mathematical demography to provide an intuitive understanding of the consequences of mortality change for offspring survival and women's lived experience of child loss. This conceptual framework can be used, for example, to study maternal bereavement in the context of a sustained mortality decline or a sudden mortality crisis.

Mortality change and its impact on child survival