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Much of our knowledge of the epidemiology and demography of HIV epidemics in Africa is derived from models fit to sparse, non-representative data. These often average over age and other important dimensions, rarely quantify uncertainty, and typically do not impose consistency on the epidemiology and the demography of the population.

demographic research

Estimates of Age-Specific Reductions in HIV Prevalence in Uganda: Bayesian Melding Estimation and Probabilistic Population Forecast with an HIV-enabled Cohort Component Projection Model