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This research aims to evaluate the effect of the climate scenario RCP 8.5 (IPCC, 2013) on streamflow and sediment transport in the Nhundiaquara river basin (southern Brazil) using the hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). The effect of the climate scenario was evaluated in two future periods: near future (2060 to 2080) and distant future (2080 to 2100) and then, compared with the historical series (1994-2014). The variability between the climatological series (historical and future) pointed the increase of 20% in the minimum temperature, and up of 6% in the maximum temperature, as well as a reduction of 15% in the volume of precipitation. Furthermore the distribution of the volume and frequency of the rain became smaller and less frequent in the future scenarios than in the historical series. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated in the period of historical series, showing an efficiency coefficient (COE) of 0,692 to runoff and 0,704 to sediments. The results of the simulation with future scenarios’ data pointed the reduction of 20,6% to the actual evapotranspiration in the near future and 8,3% in the distant future. The potential evapotranspiration (PET) showed a reduction of 3,5% in the near future and of 1,4% in the distant future. The streamflow showed a reduction of 15,4% in the near future and of 19,9% on the distant future. Overall, the results indicate that the reductions in the streamflow and sediment transport are more related to changes of volume and frequency of precipitation then to the increase of temperature.

AVALIAÇÃO DO EFEITO DE MUDANÇAS CLIMÁTICAS NA VAZÃO E TRANSPORTE DE SEDIMENTOS NA BACIA HIDROGRÁFICA DO RIO NHUNDIAQUARA, SERRA DO MAR PARANAENSE