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ThestudyinvestigatedtheeffectofrainfallvariationsonwheatyieldinMoroccoasarepresentative case study of North Africa region. The data were collected for the period 2004– 2015 from 12 meteorologicalstations.Thewheatyieldvariabilityrangewas79.5%-38.0%.Itincreasedinpoor-rain yearsandtheregionsofprecipitation≤350mm.Thewheatyieldshowedmoresignificantresponse tomonthlyperceptionchangesthantheannual.TheestimatedforecastingmodelshowedthatMarch’s rainwasthecriticalmonthforwheatyieldastheelasticityofproductionwas0.587.AprilandMay showedanelasticityof0.011and0.023,respectively.Theestimatedresponseofwheatfarmprice tograinyieldshowedthat10%increaseinwheatyieldwoulddecreasethefarmgatepriceby4.1%, i.e.poorrainyseasonsmeanincomeforegonewiththelossof inputsexpensesandexpansionin importedwheat.Acountrybufferstock,aregionalstrategicstockofwheatandsupplementarywater forirrigationinpoorprecipitationyearsarerequired. KeYWoRdS Dispersion in Rainfall and Wheat Yield, Forecasting Wheat Yield Model With Monthly Precipitation, Morocco, Rainfed Agriculture, Response of Wheat Farm Price to Grain Yield, Risk Aversion Model International Journal of Food and Beverage Manufacturing and Business Models Volume 4 • Issue 2 • July-December 2019 2 INTRodUCTIoN Climate Change: Concepts and Impacts Climate changes include the changes in the seasonal and/or annual temperature, regional rainfall rates, drier conditions risk, and increasing emissions of the atmosphericgreenhousegasconcentrations. Anychangeinclimateisseriouslyaffectingthenaturalenvironmentandhuman activities, including agriculture, and it alters the global energy budget. Abundant scientificliteratureindicatesaconsensusunderstandingofsuchissues(Anwaretal., 2015;Sudmeyeretal.,2016).Accordingly,itisprudenttocontemplateandplanfor recognitionoftheglobalambitionstolimittheclimatechange’snegativeexternalities onfoodsectorproductionperformances(Qureshietal.,2013). Climatechangeimpactsincludeeconomicpressuresandopportunitiesrelatedto increasing human populations and changing human dietary preferences, increased inputcostsandenergyprices, competing land-usepressuresandeconomicpolicyrelatedpressures.Theimpactsofclimatechangeonagriculturalproductivitywillvary regionallyandbyenterprise,withsomeregionsandenterprisesbenefitingandsome not.Changingrainfall,temperature,carbondioxide(CO2)andotherclimaticvariables willaffectaveragecropandpastureproductivity,qualityandnutrientcycling,pestand diseaseactivity,livestockproductionandreproductiverates.WhereasincreasedCO2 concentrationswillimprovetheefficiencyofplantuseofwater,increasedtemperature couldbebothbeneficialharmfuldependingonseasonandlocation(Barros,etal., 2014). Rainfed Agriculture is Globally the dominant System Theworld’slandandwaterresourcesarefiniteandunderpressurefromagrowing population. Global figures about the shares of land and water used by agriculture versusnon-agriculturalsectorsshowmajorregionalvariationsandaseriesoflocally important imbalancesondemandandsupply.Thegrowingrecognitionof theneed to meet environmental requirements has generated further intensified competition (Moeller,2009;Oliver,2010). Rainfedagricultureisthepredominantagriculturalproductionsystemworldwide. Ofthecurrent1600millionhaofworldcultivatedarea,about80percentarerainfed. Rainfedagricultureproducesabout60percentofglobalcropoutputinawidevariety ofproductionsystems.Themostproductivesystemsareconcentrated in temperate zonesofEurope,followedbyNorthAmerica,andrainfedsystemsinthesubtropics andhumidtropics.Rainfedcroppinginhighlandareasandthedrytropicstendsto berelativelylowyieldingandisoftenassociatedwithsubsistencefarmingsystems. Evidencefromfarmsworldwideshowsthatlessthan30percentofrainfallisusedby plantsintheprocessofbiomassproduction.Therestevaporatesintotheatmosphere, percolatestogroundwaterorcontributestoriverrunoff(Abrahams,et.al.,2012). Theextentofrainfedareahasnotgrowninrecentyears,duetothereplacement ofsomelandtoodegradedforfurthercroppingbylandsnewlyconvertedfromforests 15 more pages are available in the full version of this document, which may be purchased using the "Add to Cart" button on the product's webpage: www.igi-global.com/article/forecasting-model-of-wheat-yieldin-relation-to-rainfall-variability-in-north-africacountries/234722?camid=4v1 This title is available in InfoSci-Journals, InfoSci-Journal Disciplines Business, Administration, and Management, InfoSci-Journal Disciplines Engineering, Natural, and Physical Science, InfoSci-Operations, Logistics, and Performance Assessment eJournal Collection. Recommend this product to your librarian: www.igi-global.com/e-resources/libraryrecommendation/?id=2

Forecasting Model of Wheat Yield in Relation to Rainfall Variability in North Africa Countries