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During the 29 months between the overthrow of the Mubarak dictatorship and the military coup against the democratically elected government of Muhammad Mursi, about thirty million Egyptians voted in four major national polls – the constitutional referendum of March 2011, the parliamentary elections of November 2011-January 2012, the presidential elections of May-June 2012, and the constitutional referendum of December 2012. Despite the shifting alliances and counter-alliances that characterized these electoral battles, voting patterns reveal a consistent nationwide dominance of the Freedom and Justice Party that was rooted in the provincial capitals and villages of the Nile Delta with particularly enduring strength in Upper Egypt. Eventually, holdovers from the Mubarak regime allied with local elites (‘ayan) connected to the Wafd Party and with Christian groups tied to the Egyptian Block in mobilizing an opposition coalition that was centered in the more prosperous districts of Cairo and a handful of neighboring governorates in the southern Delta. Although the opposition managed to enlist the military in removing the elected government and repressing its followers, we can expect to see similar voting patterns if free elections are held again even if the competing parties adopt different names and slogans.

Urban Backlash against Democracy: Battling the Tyranny of the Majority or the Rise of Rural Power?