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The debate in Spain about the Welfare State sustainability is fuelled by recurrent catastrophic predictions about the future of public pensions. In this paper a set of such predictions made in the mid-1990s is analyzed. In retrospect, their accuracy is evaluated in relation to the historical evolution of the Spanish public finance. In the same way, the real dimension of pensions risks is assessed. Moreover, their methodology, aims and the recommendations made by their authors are discussed. The results shed light on the influence of these predictions upon risk perception of financial collapse of Social Security, on their reflexive effects as well as on their impact on the process of definition of risks

Predicciones y percepción de riesgo social. Los pronósticos fallidos sobre la crisis de las pensiones públicas españolas