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The 2002-2003 SARS outbreaks exhibited some distinct features such as rapid spatial spread, massive media reports, and fast self-control. These features were shared by the 2009 pandemic influenza and will be experienced by other emerging infectious diseases. We focus on the dynamic interaction of media reports, epidemic outbreak and behavior change in the population and formulate a compartmental model, that tracks the evolution of the human population. Such population is characterized by the disease progression (susceptible, infected, hospitalized, and recovered) and by the extent to which the media has impacted, so individuals have modified their behaviors to reduce their transmissibility and infectivity. The model also describes the dynamics of media reports by considering how media is influenced by the disease statistics (numbers of infected and hospitalized individuals, for example). We then conduct linear stability analysis and numerical simulations to study how interaction of media reports and disease progress affects the disease transmission dynamics, so as to shed light on what type of media will be the most effective for the control of an epidemic.

Interaction of media and disease dynamics and its impact on emerging infection management