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In a study for the Swiss Federal Office for Civil Protection (FOCP) the IVT (ETH Zurich) investigates the responses to large-scale evacuations (with evacuation zones of a minimum diameter of 1.5 kilometres). Evacuations are simulated using an expanded agent based micro simulation tool (MATSim). To obtain reliable results, the simulated agents have to be modelled based on observed and stated humans’ behavioural patterns in such situations. A Swiss wide stated choice survey study aimed to collect data on evacuation behaviour. A latent class multi nominal logit model is estimated to quantify people’s responses to an evacuation order. The analyses offer insights into which attributes either increase or decrease the likelihood of an immediate evacuation, later evacuation or no evacuation at all. The paper contributes to evacuation planning in several ways. During an evacuation, people respond to an exceptional event. The estimated models describe behavioural parameters, which are needed for the simulation. Estimating a detailed model on empirical data on stated evacuation response results in a more reliable input for the simulation. In this sense the paper presents highly necessary work.

Modelling behaviour during a large-scale evacuation: A latent class model to predict evacuation behaviour