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Competitive balance is a concept having led to numerous studies in sports economics. Recently, it has been completed by the concept of competitive intensity. Nevertheless, these notions have been developed essentially for team sports. This article suggests a model of competitive intensity adapted to cycling. Based on the fact that individual performance is the most important in this sport, the model takes into account three elements which generate competitive intensity in the context of stage races: uncertainty for the general classification, uncertainty for the stage victory and attacks. After having detailed the calculations for each of these three elements, the competitive intensity of two stages with similar profile is compared so as to identify some factors which create uncertainty. The extension of this approach can help organisers in their choices for the routes to be favoured

L’intensité compétitive appliquée au cyclisme : modélisation et impacts potentiels sur l’organisation des courses professionnelles