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This article offers a critical survey of the recent contributions on the “tariff-growth paradox” (also known as “Bairoch paradox”). The publication in 2000 of an important article by K. O’Rourke has sparked a lively debate on the linkages between trade policy and economic growth during the “first globalization” (1870 to 1914). The question was explored using new econometric techniques, often with references to recent inroads in the theoretical foundations for economic growth. The consensus view among various scholars tends to confirm a positive correlation between tariffs and growth for the most advanced European countries as well as overseas European Offshoots (Canada, Australia, Argentina...) – but not necessarily for periphery countries. Two factors seem to have played an important role : the quality of institutions of countries embracing protection and their legislators’ ability to handpick the protected industries (those with extensive externalities). But the hypothesis of an efficient sectoral protectionism cannot be validated by the observation of effective protection rates, an approach which remains at the present stage, very fragmented, limited to a handful of sectors, for selected benchmarks and which does not take into account the dispersion of tariff rates by country of origin for identical goods.

Les controverses autour du paradoxe Bairoch, quel bilan d'étape ?