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Aquatic invasions are one of the major threats for freshwater ecosystems. However, in developing countries, knowledge of biological invasions, essential for the implementation of appropriate legislation, is often limited if not entirely lacking. In this regard, the identification of potentially invasive non-native species by risk screening, followed by a full risk assessment of the species ranked as higher risk, enables decision-makers to be informed about the extent of the threats posed to the recipient (risk assessment) area. In this study, 32 non-native extant and horizon fish species were screened for their risk of invasiveness under current and predicted climate conditions for the South Caucasus – a biodiversity and geopolitical hotspot that includes the countries of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. Overall, the number of very high-risk species increased from four (12.5%) under current climate conditions to 12 (37.5%) under predicted climate conditions. The highest-risk species under both conditions included the already established gibel carp    Carassius   gibelio    and topmouth gudgeon    Pseudorasbora   parva   , the locally translocated pikeperch    Sander   lucioperca    and the horizon North African catfish    Clarias   gariepinus   . Under predicted climate conditions, a very high risk of invasiveness was predicted also for the translocated three-spined stickleback    Gasterosteus   aculeatus    and Eurasian perch    Perca   fluviatilis   , for the already established eastern mosquitofish    Gambusia   holbrooki   , ruffe    Gymnocephalus   cernua   , sharpbelly    Hemiculter   leucisculus    and Nile tilapia    Orechromis   niloticus   , and for the horizon pumpkinseed    Lepomis   gibbosus    and largemouth bass    Micropterus   salmoides   . Future research on the non-native species in the South Caucasus should be conducted both country- and region-wide and should account not only for the high biodiversity, but also for the critical geopolitical situation affecting the study area.

﻿Risk of invasiveness of non-native fishes in the South Caucasus biodiversity and geopolitical hotspot

Risk of invasiveness of non-native fishes in the South Caucasus biodiversity and geopolitical hotspot