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This article focuses on the perception of the situation in theArctic by key actors. The authors reach the conclusion that thesituation in the Arctic is characterized by deepeningcooperation. Peaceful development is furthermore supported by acomplex network of institutionalized relations and the factthat all territorial disputes so far have been resolvedpeacefully. The most important question about the near futurewill thus rest in the distribution of competences between theinvolved institutions and states. This will eventually lead tothe convergence of the interests of the Arctic five who wish tomaintain their dominant position in the region. If conflictsescalate, they would most likely only result in limitedconfrontations and not in a grave crisis, much less war.

Perception of the situation in the Arctic by key actors and the possibily of conflict escalation