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Predictions of the 2018 Draconid activity at the Earth and the Sun-Earth L1and L2 Lagrange points are presented. Numerical simulations of the meteoroids'ejection and evolution from comet 21P/Giacobini-Zinner are performed with acareful implementation of the results analysis and weighting. Model meteoroidfluxes at Earth are derived using as calibration the main peak date, intensity,and shower profiles of previous Draconid outbursts. Good agreement between themodel and measurements is found for the 1933, 1946, 1998 and 2011 showers for ameteoroid size distribution index at ejection of about 2.6. A less accurateestimate of the peak time for the 1985, 2005 and 2012 predominantlyradio-observed outbursts was found by considering the contribution ofindividual ejection epochs, while the model peak flux estimate was found toagree with observations to within a factor 3. Despite the promising geometricalconfiguration in 2018, our simulations predict low Draconid activity isexpected on Earth, with a maximum of less than a few tens of meteors per houraround midnight the 9th of October, confirming previous models. At the L1 andL2 Lagrange points, however, the flux estimates suggest a 'meteoroid storm'.The Gaia spacecraft at the L2 region might be able to detect small (~ {\mu}g)Draconid meteoroid impacts centered in a two-hour window around 18h30 UT on the8th of October, 2018.

The Draconid meteoroid stream 2018: prospects for satellite impact detection