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We present observations and modeling results of the propagation and impact atEarth of a high-latitude, extended filament channel eruption that commenced on2015 July 9. The coronal mass ejection (CME) that resulted from the filamenteruption was associated with a moderate disturbance at Earth. This event couldbe classified as a so-called "problem storm" because it lacked the usual solarsignatures that are characteristic of large, energetic, Earth-directed CMEsthat often result in significant geoeffective impacts. We use solarobservations to constrain the initial parameters and therefore to model thepropagation of the 2015 July 9 eruption from the solar corona up to Earth using3D magnetohydrodynamic heliospheric simulations with three differentconfigurations of the modeled CME. We find the best match between observed andmodeled arrival at Earth for the simulation run that features a toroidal fluxrope structure of the CME ejecta, but caution that different approaches may bemore or less useful depending on the CME-observer geometry when evaluating thespace weather impact of eruptions that are extreme in terms of their large sizeand high degree of asymmetry. We discuss our results in the context of bothadvancing our understanding of the physics of CME evolution and futureimprovements to space weather forecasting.

Modeling a Coronal Mass Ejection from an Extended Filament Channel. II. Interplanetary Propagation to 1 au