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Mass, radius, and age measurements of young (<100 Myr) planets have the powerto shape our understanding of planet formation. However, young stars tend to beextremely variable in both photometry and radial velocity, which makesconstraining these properties challenging. The V1298 Tau system of four ~0.5Rjup planets transiting a pre-main sequence star presents an important, ifstress-inducing, opportunity to directly observe and measure the properties ofinfant planets. Su\'arez-Mascare\~no et al. (2021) publishedradial-velocity-derived masses for two of the V1298 Tau planets using astate-of-the-art Gaussian Process regression framework. The planetary densitiescomputed from these masses were surprisingly high, implying extremely rapidcontraction after formation in tension with most existing planet formationtheories. In an effort to further constrain the masses of the V1298 Tauplanets, we obtained 36 RVs using Keck/HIRES, and analyzed them in concert withpublished RVs and photometry. Through performing a suite of cross validationtests, we found evidence that the preferred model of SM21 suffers fromoverfitting, defined as the inability to predict unseen data, rendering themasses unreliable. We detail several potential causes of this overfitting, manyof which may be important for other RV analyses of other active stars, andrecommend that additional time and resources be allocated to understanding andmitigating activity in active young stars such as V1298 Tau.

Overfitting Affects the Reliability of Radial Velocity Mass Estimates of the V1298 Tau Planets