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We infer the crater chronologies of Ceres and Vesta from a self-consistentdynamical model of asteroid impactors. The model accounts for planetarymigration/instability early in the solar system history and tracks asteroidorbits over 4.56 Gy. It is calibrated on the current population of the asteroidbelt. The model provides the number of asteroid impacts on different worlds atany time throughout the solar system history. We combine the results with animpactor-crater scaling relationship to determine the crater distribution ofCeres and Vesta and compare these theoretical predictions with observations. Wefind that: (i) The Ceres and Vesta chronologies are similar, whereas theysignificantly differ from the lunar chronology. Therefore, using the lunarchronology for main belt asteroids, as often done in previous publications, isincorrect. (ii) The model results match the number and size distribution oflarge (diameter $>90$ km) craters observed on Vesta, but overestimate thenumber of large craters on Ceres. This implies that large crater erasure isrequired for Ceres. (iii) In a model where planetary migration/instabilityhappens early, the probability to form the Rheasilvia basin on Vesta during thelast 1 Gy is 10\%, a factor of $\sim1.5$ higher than for the late instabilitycase and $\sim2.5$ times higher than found in previous studies. Thus, while theformation of the Rheasilvia at $\sim1$ Gy ago (Ga) would be somewhat unusual,it cannot be ruled out at more than $\simeq1.5\sigma$. In broader context, ourwork provides a self-consistent framework for modeling asteroid crater records.

Modeling the chronologies and size distributions of Ceres and Vesta craters