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Much of the science from the exoplanets detected by the TESS mission relieson precisely predicted transit times that are needed for many follow-upcharacterization studies. We investigate ephemeris deterioration for simulatedTESS planets and find that the ephemerides of 81% of those will have expired(i.e. 1$\sigma$ mid-transit time uncertainties greater than 30 minutes) oneyear after their TESS observations. We verify these results using a sample ofTESS planet candidates as well. In particular, of the simulated planets thatwould be recommended as JWST targets by Kempton et al. (2018), $\sim$80% willhave mid-transit time uncertainties $>$ 30 minutes by the earliest time JWSTwould observe them. This rapid deterioration is driven primarily by therelatively short time baseline of TESS observations. We describe strategies formaintaining TESS ephemerides fresh through follow-up transit observations. Wefind that the longer the baseline between the TESS and the follow-upobservations, the longer the ephemerides stay fresh, and that 51% of simulatedprimary mission TESS planets will require space-based observations. Therecently-approved extension to the TESS mission will rescue the ephemerides ofmost (though not all) primary mission planets, but the benefits of these newobservations can only be reaped two years after the primary missionobservations. Moreover, the ephemerides of most primary mission TESS planets(as well as those newly discovered during the extended mission) will again haveexpired by the time future facilities such as the ELTs, Ariel and the possibleLUVOIR/OST missions come online, unless maintenance follow-up observations areobtained.

Securing the legacy of TESS through the care and maintenance of TESS planet ephemerides