English (United Kingdom)

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/featured_content/oa?rat=en

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/highlighted_journal/

Global: Zendy Plus annual

Presents the access of premium content as premium feature

Premium Content

Presents the keyphrase highlighting as premium feature

Keyphrase Highlighting

Presents the summarisation as premium feature

Summarisation

Insights

Presents the pdf analysis as premium feature

PDF Analysis

Presents the zaia usage as premium feature

ZAIA

Global: Zendy Tools annual

Global: Zendy Free Plan

Global: Zendy Tools monthly

Global: Zendy Plus monthly

We propose a new approach to Bayesian prior probability distributions(priors) that can improve orbital solutions for low-phase-coverage orbits,where data cover less than approximately 40% of an orbit. In instances of lowphase coverage such as with stellar orbits in the Galactic center or withdirectly-imaged exoplanets, data have low constraining power and thus priorscan bias parameter estimates and produce under-estimated confidence intervals.Uniform priors, which are commonly assumed in orbit fitting, are notorious forthis. We propose a new observable-based prior paradigm that is based onuniformity in observables. We compare performance of this observable-basedprior and of commonly assumed uniform priors using Galactic center anddirectly-imaged exoplanet (HR 8799) data. The observable-based prior can reducebiases in model parameters by a factor of two and helps avoid under-estimationof confidence intervals for simulations with less than about 40% phasecoverage. Above this threshold, orbital solutions for objects with sufficientphase coverage such as S0-2, a short-period star at the Galactic center withfull phase coverage, are consistent with previously published results. Belowthis threshold, the observable-based prior limits prior influence in regions ofprior dominance and increases data influence. Using the observable-based prior,HR 8799 orbital analyses favor lower eccentricity orbits and provide strongerevidence that the four planets have a consistent inclination around 30 degreesto within 1-sigma. This analysis also allows for the possibility ofcoplanarity. We present metrics to quantify improvements in orbital estimateswith different priors so that observable-based prior frameworks can be testedand implemented for other low-phase-coverage orbits.

Improving Orbit Estimates for Incomplete Orbits with a New Approach to Priors -- with Applications from Black Holes to Planets