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Hydrogen and helium demix when sufficiently cool, and this bears on theevolution of all giant planets at large separations at or below roughly aJupiter mass. We model the thermal evolution of Jupiter, including its evolvinghelium distribution following results of ab initio simulations for heliumimmiscibility in metallic hydrogen. After 4 Gyr of homogeneous evolution,differentiation establishes a thin helium gradient below 1 Mbar thatdynamically stabilizes the fluid to convection. The region undergoes overstabledouble-diffusive convection (ODDC), whose weak heat transport maintains asuperadiabatic temperature gradient. With a generic parameterization for theODDC efficiency, the models can reconcile Jupiter's intrinsic flux, atmospherichelium content, and radius at the age of the solar system if the Lorenzen etal. H-He phase diagram is translated to lower temperatures. We cast theevolutionary models in an MCMC framework to explore tens of thousands ofevolutionary sequences, retrieving probability distributions for the totalheavy element mass, the superadiabaticity of the temperature gradient due toODDC, and the phase diagram perturbation. The adopted SCvH-I equation of statefavors inefficient ODDC such that a thermal boundary layer is formed, allowingthe molecular envelope to cool rapidly while the deeper interior actually heatsup over time. If the overall cooling time is modulated with an additional freeparameter to imitate the effect of a colder or warmer EOS, the models favorthose that are colder than SCvH-I. In this case the superadiabaticity is modestand a warming or cooling deep interior are equally likely.

Bayesian Evolution Models for Jupiter with Helium Rain and Double-diffusive Convection