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NASA's Kepler Mission uncovered a wealth of planetary systems, many withplanets on short-period orbits. These short-period systems reside around 50% ofSun-like stars and are similarly prevalent around M dwarfs. Their formation andsubsequent evolution is the subject of active debate. In this paper, wesimulate late-stage, in-situ planet formation across a grid of planetesimaldisks with varying surface density profiles and total mass. We comparesimulation results with observable characteristics of the Kepler sample. Weidentify mixture models with different primordial planetesimal disk propertiesthat self-consistently recover the multiplicity, period ratio and durationratio distributions of the Kepler planets. We draw three main conclusions: (1)We favor a "frozen-in" narrative for systems of short period planets, in whichthey are stable over long timescales, as opposed to metastable. (2) The "Keplerdichotomy", an observed phenomenon of the Kepler sample wherein thearchitectures of planetary systems appear to either vary significantly or havemultiple modes, can naturally be explained by formation within planetesimaldisks with varying surface density profiles. Finally, (3) we quantify thenature of the "Kepler dichotomy" for both GK stars and M dwarfs, and find thatit varies with stellar type. While the mode of planet formation that accountsfor highly multiplistic systems occurs in 24+/-7% of planetary systems orbitingGK stars, it occurs in 63+/-16% of planetary systems orbiting M dwarfs.

The Kepler Dichotomy in Planetary Disks: Linking Kepler Observables to Simulations of Late-Stage Planet Formation