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The prediction of the arrival time for fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs) andtheir associated shocks is highly desirable in space weather studies. In thispaper, we use two shock propagation models, i.e. Data Guided Shock Time OfArrival (DGSTOA) and Data Guided Shock Propagation Model (DGSPM), to predictthe kinematical evolution of interplanetary shocks associated with fast CMEs.DGSTOA is based on the similarity theory of shock waves in the solar windreference frame, and DGSPM on the non-similarity theory in the stationaryreference frame. The inputs are the kinematics of the CME front at the maximumspeed moment obtained from the geometric triangulation method applied to STEREOimaging observations together with the Harmonic Mean approximation. The outputsprovide the subsequent propagation of the associated shock. We apply thesemodels to the CMEs on 2012 January 19, January 23, and March 7. We find thatthe shock models predict reasonably well the shock's propagation after theimpulsive acceleration. The shock's arrival time and local propagation speed atEarth predicted by these models are consistent with in situ measurements ofWIND. We also employ the Drag-Based Model (DBM) as a comparison, and find thatit predicts a steeper deceleration than the shock models after the rapiddeceleration phase. The predictions of DBM at 1 AU agree with the followingICME or sheath structure, not the preceding shock. These results demonstratethe applicability of the shock models used here for future arrival timeprediction of interplanetary shocks associated with fast CMEs.

Comparison of CME/shock propagation models with heliospheric imaging and in situ observations