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In the context of the Kyoto Protocol, the mandatory accounting of Afforestationand Reforestation (AR) activities requires estimating the forest carbon (C)stock changes for any direct human-induced expansion of forest since 1990.We used the Carbon Budget Model (CBM) to estimate C stock changes and emissionsfrom fires on AR lands at country level. Italy was chosen because it hasone of the highest annual rates of AR in Europe and the same model was recentlyapplied to Italy’s forest management area. We considered the time period1990-2020 with two case studies reflecting different average annual ratesof AR: 78 kha yr-1, based on the 2013 Italian National Inventory Report (NIR, officialestimates), and 28 kha yr-1, based on the Italian Land Use Inventory System(IUTI estimates). We compared these two different AR rates with eight regionalforest inventories and three independent local studies. The average annualC stock change estimated by CBM, excluding harvest or natural disturbances,was equal to 1738 Gg C yr-1 (official estimates) and 630 Gg C yr-1 (IUTIestimates). Results for the official estimates are consistent with the estimatesreported by Italy to the KP for the period 2008-2010; for 2011 our estimatesare about 20% higher than the country’s data, probably due to different assumptionson the fire disturbances, the AR rate and the dead wood and litterpools. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that: (i) the impact on the AR sink ofdifferent assumptions of species composition is small; (ii) the amount of harvestprovided by AR has been negligible for the past (< 3%) and is expected tobe small in the near future (up to 8% in 2020); (iii) forest fires up to 2011 hada small impact on the AR sink (on average, < 100 Gg C yr-1). Finally the comparisonof the historical AR rates reported by NIR and IUTI with other independentsources gives mixed results: the regional inventories support the AR ratesreported by the NIR, while some local studies suggest AR rates somehow intermediatebetween NIR and IUTI. In conclusion, this study suggests that the CBMcan be applied at country level to estimate the C stock changes resulting fromAR, including the effect of harvest and fires, though only a comparison with resultsbased on direct field measurements could verify the model’s capability toestimate the real C stock change.JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climat

Assessing the carbon sink of afforestation with the Carbon Budget Model at the country level: an example for Italy