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A halving of global greenhouse gas emissions is needed between now and 2050. This will require an energy technology revolution. All options must be used: energy efficiency, CO2-free fuels and CO2 capture and storage. The power sector will be especially affected and the global average carbon intensity of electricity needs to be reduced by one order of magnitude. A mix of renewables, nuclear and fossil fuels with CCS will be needed to achieve this goal. This development will affect gas turbine sales and their development. INTRODUCTION Secure, reliable and affordable energy resources are fundamental to economic stability and growth. The erosion of energy security, rising energy costs, the threat of disruptive climate change and the growing energy needs of the developing world all pose major challenges to energy decision makers. What visions of the future that address these issues are technically feasible and available? Where do we need to focus? And who needs to act and when? The recent IEA study Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 (ETP) provides an analysis of the status and future prospects of key energy technologies, and shows how they can contribute to a more sustainable, secure and least-cost energy system (IEA, 2008). It explores how technology can change our energy future, and outlines the barriers to the implementation of change and the measures that would be needed to overcome these barriers. The goal of the analysis is to provide a technology perspective on the feasibility and costs of deep emission reductions; the book includes various scenarios, amongst them an extremely ambitious one, showing how CO2 emissions could be reduced to 50% below current levels by 2050 and how oil demand could be lowered by 27% by this time. This study also contains roadmaps for all technologies that play a key role in the emissions halving scenario. It does not deal with the political feasibility of such targets. However, the results make clear that all countries need to act in the next few years if the goal of halving emissions is to remain affordable. In fact the analysis suggests that such action could also greatly enhance the supply security. The challenge is huge, given that energy CO2 emissions have been accelerating in recent years. Plus, economic activity is projected to grow by a factor of four between now and 2050, from around USD 50 trillion GDP per year to around USD 200 trillion per year. This growth is essential to lifting millions in developing countries out of poverty, and the same economic growth rate has been applied in all scenarios. However, it means that without further action, baseline energy use could double and emissions could increase by 130% by 2050. Reducing demand for energy services can therefore only play a limited role. But technological change can help industrialized countries and emerging economies alike. In ETP, the IEA analyses -amongst other scenarios -what would be required to achieve the most ambitious scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC). In its 4 report, the IPCC says that only by reducing global CO2 emissions by 50% to 85%, compared to 2000 emissions levels, can we expect to limit temperature increases to 2-2.4°C. G8 leaders agreed at their 2008 Hokkaido Summit to International Journal of Gas Turbine, Propulsion and Power Systems February 2010, Volume 3, Number 1 Copyright © 2010 Gas Turbine Society of Japan Manuscript received on Feb. 26, 2009 Review completed on Feb. 26, 2010 1 emissions halving by 2050. What needs to be done to make this happen from an energy point of view? The answer is sobering but attainable: We need a global energy technology revolution, a complete transformation in the way we produce and use energy, with action required globally in the next few years. Electricity supply and demand will be significantly affected. The efficiency of electricity supply, transmission and distribution and use needs to be maximised. Electricity supply needs to be virtually decarbonised. The mix of CO2-free power supply options will vary worldwide, depending on natural resource endowment, consumer preferences and other factors. In the longer term, electrification of the demand side may play an increasing role, for example heat pumps and electric vehicles. THE BLUE SCENARIOS AND THE ROLE OF ENERGY TECHNOLOGY The analysis is built around three sets of global energy technology scenarios. These are a Baseline (business-as-usual Scenario), ACT scenarios aiming for emissions that are in 2050 mitigated to today’s levels and a range of BLUE Scenarios showing how CO2 emissions could be reduced to 50% below current levels by 2050. A 50% reduction of worldwide emissions by 2050 (as in the BLUE scenarios) would be an extremely challenging target. This would require measures with a cost of up to USD 200/t CO2. With less-optimistic technology assumptions, notably in transportation, costs could be USD 500/t CO2. The transition cost will be considerable. The average emission reduction costs in this scenario are about a fifth of the marginal cost, and range from USD 38/t CO2 to USD 117/t CO2. In total, five variants have been analysed for the power sector for BLUE scenarios. These are: MAP – relatively optimistic for all technologies. High nuclear (hi NUC) – 2000 GW instead of 1 250 GW maximum nuclear capacity. No carbon capture and storage (no CCS). Low renewables (lo REN) – assuming less cost reductions for renewable power generation technologies. Low end-use efficiency gains (lo EFF) – assuming a 0.3% lower annual energy efficiency improvement, compared to MAP. The ETP scenarios require a broad portfolio of technologies to be used. End-use efficiency accounts for 36% of all savings in the BLUE Map scenario, renewables for 21%, and CO2 capture and storage 19%. The remaining 24% is accounted for by nuclear, fossil fuel switching and efficiency in power generation (Figure 1). Some flexibility exists to vary these shares, which is reflected through the five scenarios for the power sector and four for transport. Improving energy efficiency should be a priority. Many efficiency measures can be implemented with relatively short lead times, and full life costs are often negative. Fig. 1 Contribution of emissions reductions options in the BLUE Map Scenario of ETP 2008, between 2005 and 2050 (IEA, 2008a) First, we must harvest the huge efficiency potential in all of our economies. Energy efficiency has the greatest potential for CO2 savings at lowest cost and is in many cases even paying off. And results can be delivered soon. The IEA submitted 25 energy efficiency recommendations to the G8 Summit in Hokkaido, covering seven priority areas: buildings; appliances; lighting; transport; industry; power utilities and cross-sectoral activity (IEA, 2008b). The proposed actions could save around 8.2 gigatonnes (Gt) CO2/year by 2030. This is equivalent to around one fifth of global reference case CO2 emissions from the energy sector in 2030. JGPP Vol. 3, No. 1

Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 : Scenarios and Strategies for CO2 Emissions Reduction