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[...] in many situations a decision does not have to be made immediately, but can be delayed until additional information has been acquired. Sequential analysis seems particularly applicable to the problem of predicting turning points in the business cycle (Palash and Radecki, 1985). Elaborating on this idea, we propose a new approach to predict cyclical turning points in the Euro-zone using the Neft\ue7i's approach. The output is a probability index for a forthcoming economic turning point.Der Aufsatz greift die Idee auf, dass in vielen Situationen Entscheidungen nicht sofort getroffen werden m\ufcssen, sondern verschoben werden, bis zus\ue4tzliche Informationen zur Verf\ufcgung stehen. Sequentielle Analysemethoden scheinen daher f\ufcr das Problem der Wendepunktanalyse besonders geeignet zu sein. Hierf\ufcr wird auf den Ansatz von Neft\ue7i zur\ufcckgreifend ein Wahrscheinlichkeitsindikator f\ufcr k\ufcnfige Wendepunkte des europ\ue4ischen Konjunkturzyklus vorgestellt

A New Indicator Based on Neftçi's Approach for Predicting Turning Points of the Euro-Zone Growth Cycle