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Based on West German data of the Socio Economic Panel from 1984 to 2005 the paper investigates, whether individual tenure is influenced by the economic cycle. Parametric time duration analysis, especially Weibull and log logistic accelerated failure models are applied. The major results are as follows: The business cycle has effects on tenure for men and women. Job stability increases at the beginning of a boom. Later on during the upswing we observe a contrary effect for men. The probability to change the job accelerates due to high growth rates in the past periods.

Beschäftigungsstabilität im Konjunkturzyklus – Eine empirische Analyse mit Individualdaten für Westdeutschland 1984–2005