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Observers made change-detection judgments for colored squares in a paradigm that manipulated the retention interval, the magnitude of change, and objective change probability. The probability of change judgments increased across the retention interval for “same” and “small-change” test items but stayed the same or decreased for “large-change” and “far” test items. A variety of formal models were fitted to the individual-subject data. The modeling results provided evidence that, beyond changes in visual-memory precision, there were decreases in memory strength of individual study items across the retention interval. In addition, the modeling results provided evidence of a zero-information, absence-of-memory state that required guessing. The data were not sufficiently strong to sharply distinguish whether the losses in memory strength across the retention interval were continuous in nature or all-or-none. The authors argue that the construct of memory strength as distinct from memory variability is an important component of the nature of forgetting from visual working memory.

Memory strength versus memory variability in visual change detection