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Forecasting of emerging technology plays important roles in business strategy and R&D investment. There are various ways for technology forecasting including patent analysis. Qualitative analysis methods through experts’ evaluations and opinions have been mainly used for technology forecasting using patents. However qualitative methods do not assure objectivity of analysis results and requires high cost and long time. To make up for the weaknesses, we are able to analyze patent data quantitatively and statistically by using text mining technique. In this paper, we suggest a new method of technology forecasting using text mining and ARIMA analysis.

Time Series Analysis of Patent Keywords for Forecasting Emerging Technology