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Invasive species are threatening the diverse habitats within Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The invasive exotics burdock (Arctium minus), bishop’s goutweed (Aegopodium podgraria), forget-me-not (Myosotis spp.), garlic mustard (Alliaria petiolata), periwinkle (Vinca spp.), red clover (Trifolium pratense), spotted knapweed (Centaurea maculosa), and sweet clover (Melilotus spp.) have the ability to alter ecosystems and are invading significant acreage within the park. Management of these plants is therefore a high priority for the park. Multi-criteria risk models were developed and tested for those eight species by assigning risks to GIS layers such as vegetation, soils, and hydrology. The average overall accuracy of the introduction phase of invasion was 89.5%, while the establishment phase tested at 93.4% accuracy, and the spread phase tested at 91.6% accuracy. The predictive models can be the first step to a proactive approach to invasive plant management that includes locating and eradicating the population of a given invasive plant before it becomes established and

Effects of management on native and exotic plant communities in Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan