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ix Chapter 1: Introduction 1 Chapter 2: Literature Review 4 Military Decision Making 4 Overconfidence in Planning 4 The Effects of Frames 5 Evidence for Debiasing Confidence 6 Hindsight and Uncertainty 6 Decision Making: Idea Generation and Plan Evaluation 7 Present Research 9 Chapter 3: Experiment 1 11 Hypotheses 12 Methods12 Results 17 Discussion 25 Chapter 4: Experiment 2 28

Improving Planning: Quantitative Evaluation of the Premortem Technique in Field and Laboratory Settings