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A methodology is presented to evaluate the current condition and predict the cause of inactivity of assembly lines by performing an analysis of the number of production stoppages. The behavior of the stoppages is investigated by cause and by type of work station, in order to guide better decision making. The data collected was the station that causes the line stoppage, its cause and the number of stoppages. The calculations obtained were the probabilities of the causes of stoppage, applying the chi-square goodness of fit test. Based on the multinomial distribution, models were presented to predict the causes of the next “m” stoppages of the line. In addition, one of the main findings was that the stoppages due to operators are 61.37% of all stoppages, so it is recommended to maximize the skills and knowledge of the operators.

PREDICCIÓN DEL NÚMERO DE PAROS DE PRODUCCIÓN EN LÍNEAS DE ENSAMBLE