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Preparation for climate change and responding appropriately to extreme events and abrupt changes in the state and organisation of ecosystems, and their dependent societies, is aided by pre-testing of strategies and adaptation options. Simulation modeling can facilitate understanding of the underlying drivers and system responses as well as appropriate monitoring, and can assist in planning for both gradual and abrupt future change. Here we first present a framework to map the flows from changes in physical drivers impacting biological systems through to their impact on socio-economic systems. We then suggest actions that could be taken as a perturbation propagates through the system, and examine several modeling tools that are being used to road-test climate-smart management responses, strategies or to inform design of adaptation options. Through case study examples we focus on (1) the use of multispecies models to advance our ability to anticipate or deal with major ecosystem shifts, (2) illustrate how the outputs of models, such as seasonal forecast models, can be used to adaptively respond to changes, and (3) the use of management strategy evaluation (MSE) to account for uncertainties and test the performance of alternative marine monitoring and management strategies to detect and respond to ecological changes caused by climate change. Our examples illustrate that models need not be overly complex to be useful. For example, we show that an intermediate complexity modelling approach assists in understanding the underlying mechanisms (e.g. nonlinear changes in population parameters below critical prey thresholds may contribute to the responses of predators to changes in their prey) as well as in identifying early warning signals (e.g. increasing variance in population monitoring data may signal a forthcoming abrupt decline). Similarly, forecasting models can provide information on seasonal time scales, allowing proactive decision making by a range of users. Seasonal forecasting is already being used in Australia in a range of marine farming and fishing operations to reduce uncertainty and manage business risks. Species-specific habitat forecasts are also being used to assist fishers plan the timing of their harvest of wild fisheries such as southern bluefin tuna. These approaches may represent a useful stepping stone to improve decision making and industry resilience at longer timescales. Ecological simulations of the resilience of marine ecosystems can similarly inform managers on how to build resilience to future climate change, in order to prevent or mitigate potentially catastrophic shifts to alternative (often less productive) ecosystem states. Under a changing climate there are no historical analogs, and hence forward-looking strategies that are pre-tested against a broad range of plausible future outcomes are needed. MSE can be used to compare the performance of alternative future strategies, whilst taking into account the considerable uncertainty both in future climate variables, and their impacts. An example is presented of the use of MSE to integrate across biological and climate uncertainties, and test the performance and risks (biological, multispecies, economic) of alternative management strategies applied to the Torres Strait bêchede-mer (sea cucumber) fishery. Spatial management approaches based on adaptive feedback performed best and substantially reduced risks under future changing climate and biological uncertainty, compared with status quo management. Finally, we describe recent advancements in modeling capability to extend considerations beyond the biophysical domain as part of a broader socio-ecological framework. Models are the only approach that can provide such insight in a rigorous, repeatable and transparent fashion.

Using marine models to road-test climate-smart management responses and strategies and prepare decision makers