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Due to its complex topography and diverse climate (e.g. monsoonal rainfall, tropical cyclones), Vietnam is expected to be greatly affected by climate change. Therefore, detailed information about possible changes is crucial for the planning of climate adaptation measures. The most recent climate projections generated by coupled global climate models (GCMs) as well as earth system models (ESMs) for the CMIP5 experiment are still too coarse to provide this information. Using the conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM), a stretched-grid atmospheric model, regional climate projections with approximately 10 km horizontal resolution over Vietnam have been produced. The downscaling method involves two steps. First, a global 50 km even-grid run is conducted driven just by bias and variance corrected monthly sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations from six different CMIP5 GCMs/ESMs and two RCP emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). In the second step of the downscaling method, a 10 km stretched-grid version of CCAM is forced by spectrally filtered results from the 50 km global simulations. Validation of the 50 km and the 10 km simulations of the present climate will be presented. The climate projections from the GCMs, 50 km and 10 km simulations will also be discussed to show some of the impact of the downscaling method and resolution on the projections for Southeast Asia and Vietnam.

Ensemble bias and variance corrected high-resolution downscaled climate projections for Southeast Asia