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The relationship between emerging technologies and how the Army conducts its business is not a simple one. Army has a requirement for plausible emerging technology impact information in order to provide guidance for strategic planning and future development across the Army. An earlier study assessing emerging technologies on Army force structure highlighted the need for an ongoing program of work. In order to generate an ongoing program of traceable and consistent emerging technology information a process was developed which would support the nature of this work based upon the requirements of the Australian Army. This project leverages off the emerging technologies work already conducted within DSTO, and couples with ongoing research and techniques that are well developed to produce an evolutionary ongoing process. An Army centric focus is used for analysis of plausible impacts of emerging technologies on generic Army functions over a rolling 30 year timeframe. In order to undertake this, a well-defined and consistent framework was required which would provide a common language to underpin the entire process. This framework was developed as a two-sided classification framework of emerging technology categories on one axis and generic functions of the Australian Army on the other. Using a framework of this nature has some limitations in that there are technologies which map into multiple categories; however it was found that this limitation was easily managed against the benefits provided by the ability of this framework to allow this complex space to be structured for study. The classification framework is presented as the first item in this paper. The determination of plausible impacts of emerging technologies on the Australian Army is undertaken using a well-established qualitative technique called TOWS (Threats, Opportunities, Weaknesses and Strengths) which is designed to deduce outcomes and strategies from the combinations of these elements. TOWS is reliant on the strength and breadth of the Subject Matter Experts consulted and the ability of these experts and the analytical team to develop the outcomes/strategies and impacts. This plausible impact determination is the second focus of this paper, where the use of the TOWS method (as part of the larger emerging technology evaluation process) is presented with a sample of an impact analysis. The plausible impact outcomes from this analytical process provide the Army with documented and researched outcomes and strategies resulting from the consideration of technology areas on Army functions, which may have impact on the way the Army conducts these functions in the future. These outcomes and strategies are provided to the Army for consideration as a part of their future strategic planning and development process. They cover the breadth of the external threats and opportunities as well as internal weaknesses and strengths for plausible technology impact on Army function and where the risk or opportunity may lie.

Assessing the impact of emerging technologies on the Australian Army