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Water resources in many parts of the world are experiencing degradation of the resource base and stress due to increasing demands. River diversions, clearing of native vegetation and irrigated agriculture can lead to salinisation of water and land resources and result in significant economic losses. The salinisation problem is a major threat to environmental sustainability. In order to better manage and control further degradation of limited water resources, predictions of water resource quantity as well as quality have to be improved. This study is motivated by salinisation of streams in response to landuse changes and aims to examine links between the regional behaviour of low flows and stream salinity. Stream salinity can be used as a hydrological response to catchment scale anthropogenic changes and a measure of stream water quality. It is observed that low flows have usually higher salt concentrations compared to high and medium streamflows. However, the question is how low flow salinity is associated with low flows, as the observed data on low flows and low flow salinity show great variability in space and time. This paper analyses the relationship between low flows and low flow salinity. In order to explain the spatial variability in low flows and low flow salinity in a sub-humid region, this study develops regional regression models, and identifies differences in the two regional models. We analysed the variability in low flows and low flow salinity with the help of catchment-scale observed data on climate, vegetation, geology, soils, catchment physical attributes, groundwater, streamflow and salinity from 78 catchments across Victoria, Australia. Physical characteristics of the study catchments were derived with the help of a digital elevation model of the area. Data on spatial variability in land use, vegetation and geology and time series of streamflow and salinity and groundwater salinity were used in the analysis. Statistical methods, including correlation, stepwise regression and multiple regression, were used to regionalize low flows and low flow salinity for the study catchments. Data analysis of the study catchments shows that there is a strong correlation between low flows and low flow salinity in a log-log space. However, it is difficult to predict low flow salinity on the basis of low flow data alone. Although low flows and low flow salinity are correlated, their spatial variability in the regional models is represented by different variables. Sustained low flows are associated with increase in moisture supply (P/Eo), catchment efficiency to convert rainfall to runoff (R/P) and negatively correlated with evapotranspiration ratio (E/P). Low flow salinity, on the other hand, is positively associated with evapotranspiration ratio (E/P) and catchment flatness and negatively correlated with evapotranspiration efficiency (E/Eo).

Identifying differences in the regionalisation of low flows and low flow salinity