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Marina Reservoir is one of the largest fresh water body in Singapore, recently constructed with the purpose of increasing the drinking water supply and Singapore's self-sufficiency. Besides this strategic role, the reservoir also serves for floods control and lifestyle attraction. The largest portion of the inflow volumes comes from five main uncontrolled catchments, which show fast-varying discharge variations due to the strong storms affecting this region. Moreover, highly paved areas cause rapid runoff processes, with a concentration time lower than one hour. Such hydrological context creates difficulties in satisfying the operational objectives and provides a challenging environment for the application of real-time control methods. With the purpose of evaluating the potential of real-time control for the optimal operation of Marina Reservoir, this work adopts Model Predictive Control (MPC), a form of deterministic control that em- ploys the current state of the system, the future inflows trajectory furnished by a predictive model and a further model describing the internal dynamics of the controlled sub-system to determine an optimal control sequence over a finite prediction horizon. The rationale behind the choice of MPC is that this method is characterized by reduced computational requests and the capability of exploiting any exoge- nous information, as precipitation or evaporation measurements, that allow for an accurate prediction of the inflow events, which is crucial for an effective management of fast-varying hydrological systems. In the present application, Marina Reservoir catchment is described with a data-driven rainfall-runoff model (in the form of M5 model trees) that fully exploits the hydro-meteorological information avail- able in real-time, thus enhancing the accuracy of the inflow prediction. The model is combined with a non-linear MPC scheme that optimizes the barrage operation according to the different operational ob- jectives. Preliminary results show the effectiveness of the proposed control method, which outperforms the currently-used operating rules.

Assessing the effectiveness of a real-time control method for Marina Reservoir management