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We use cognitive dissonance theory to frame the presentation of results on how dissatisfaction with employment opportunities (dissonance) leads to education change and hence employment change. We discuss these results and discuss the theory in relation to modelling human adaptation to climate change. Consistent with cognitive dissonance theory we predict that when people are dissatisfied with the state of something that is important to them they seek to change either (1) the state, or; (2) the value they associate with that state. If, for example, people are dissatisfied with their employment state then we predict they would move to change (improve) it. If they are unable to change their employment state then they may well change their attitude to this factor in their lives and be more accepting and hence satisfied with the state of their employment. They would construct a narrative around why employment is not that important. We use survey data collected over 8 years to test our predictions that when faced with an unsatisfactory state people would first try and change the state and if this failed they would change their attitude towards the state. We found that moderate dissatisfaction was more likely than not to lead to changes in education and thence employment satisfaction. Contrary to our expectations people who were very dissatisfied with their employment opportunities were unlikely to change their education status. However, people that did not change their education ended up with improved employment satisfaction in 2009/2010 as cognitive dissonance might predict. We discuss the results in relation to recent developments in cognitive dissonance theory which suggest that dissonance is likely to be highly relevant in action oriented situations. We suggest that simple and targeted statistical analyses such as those we present may be useful in modelling to explore human responses to climate change in the context of policy evaluation.

Exploring motivations to change; change the state or change the value