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Background: More than a year following the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the effect on health, economics, travel, and social aspects of life remains evident. With the deployment of the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) vaccine to various countries, it is believed that the impact of Covid-19 on populations will be mitigated. However, due to vaccine short-age and uncertainty about the duration of protection, individuals must adhere to effective preventive measures that could reduce the spread of the virus. This is important as countries begin to open their borders. Using the susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered model, we set out to estimate the incidence rate and spread of COVID-19 to the different Local Government Areas (LGAs). Methods: In this study, we collected SARS-CoV-2 incidence data generated by the Nigerian Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) from the onset of the pandemic until October 2020 to retrospectively predict the incidence at the beginning of the pandemic in Nigeria. Results: We observed discrepancies in incidence between our model and the NCDC COVID-19 cases at different time points resulting in a weak positive correlation. Unfortunately, it was observed from our model that SARS-CoV-2 will still be in circulation even in 2022. Conclusion: While the government of Nigeria must open up the borders, appropriate preventive measures and massive vaccine campaigns to increase vaccine coverage should be in place.

Utilising Epidemiological Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Cases in Nigeria to Predict the Dissemination Pattern in Different States and Local Government Areas