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Total fertility rate in Nigeria is 5.7 compared with over 8 in the past. Modern contraceptive use within marriage is very low and socio-economic development is still crawling. What factors account for this fragile transition? This question is the focus of this study. The study examines the socioeconomic and cultural factors that account for fertility transition in the country. Data were gathered through a survey conducted among the Ogu of south-western Nigeria. Analysis employed descriptive statistical tools and Ordinary Least Square model. Analysis reveals that post primary education (especially among women), spousal discussion about family size, monogamous marriage and age at first marriage were inversely related to children ever born (CEB) among men and female respondents. The result suggests that moderate improvement in these factors are likely responsible for the fragile transition. Therefore, policies to raise literacy level especially among women, increase age at first marriage, promote monogamous marriage and spousal communication may accelerate the fragile transition in the country.

Correlates of Fertility in a Low Contraception Setting: A Study of Ogu of South-Western Nigeria