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Global eel production through aquaculture has grown over 500% since the mid-twentieth century, with much of production occurring in East Asia. Recent proposal of Anguilla mossambica (Peters, 1852) (African longfin eel) aquaculture in the U.S. State of Michigan highlighted a need for greater understanding of potential risk posed by introducing this species to the United States and the Great Lakes region of North America. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service rapid risk screening had previously characterized this species as posing “uncertain” risk to the contiguous United States. The aquaculture petition motivated a multi-expert risk assessment, an approach that promoted synthesis of published and unpublished knowledge on the poorlystudied A. mossambica along with tracking and quantification of uncertainty. A group of six scientists with expertise in eel biology, eel conservation, or fish health provided inputs to run the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Freshwater Fish Invasive Species Risk Assessment Model (FISRAM). As a Bayesian belief network, FISRAM required experts to estimate probabilities of harm to native species, ecosystems, and humans by a variety of mechanisms, as well as estimate probabilities of habitat suitability and transport. In their responses, experts emphasized lack of knowledge about many ecological interactions involving A. mossambica. However, they consistently rated its probability of transport high and expressed particular concern about concurrent introduction of the swimbladder nematode Anguillicoloides papernai (Moravec and Taraschewski, 1988) that parasitizes A. mossambica. Mean predicted probability that A. mossambica would be invasive, i.e., cause economic or environmental harm or harm to human health, was 0.24 when considering climate match to the Great Lakes basin only, and 0.57 when considering climate match to the contiguous United States. The range of predicted probabilities across experts was extreme. The State of Michigan has now used the results of this risk assessment to inform new pathogen testing and facility requirements in support of a recirculating aquaculture system (RAS) for A. mossambica in Michigan.

Evaluating risk of African longfin eel (Anguilla mossambica) aquaculture in Michigan, USA, using a Bayesian belief network of freshwater fish invasion