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Determining which species should or should not be on priority lists of invasive alien species is far from trivial. It is rare to have sufficient data to obtain empirical estimates of whether an individual species should be included or excluded and so risk assessment protocols depend heavily on expert-opinion. A challenge is deciding what to do if experts have different opinions. Few published studies have attempted to quantify the diversity of opinion among experts and in most circumstances final lists are presented as if they were the outcome of full consensus. Here we used an iterative expert elicitation process and combined this with statistical modelling to develop a list of “High Threat” alien plant species in the context of ecological restoration. Competition from invasive alien plant species can be a major cause of restoration failure, but not all alien species pose a threat to restoration success. The development of a list of persistent and invasive alien species that competitively exclude native plant species and reduce the probability of successful ecological restoration could improve our ability to distinguish between those sites where ecological restoration is more likely to succeed and those sites where it could be a costly failure. Nine experts assessed 263 alien plant species over multiple assessment rounds. Full consensus among experts was achieved for only 20% of species but the iterative process reduced the number of uncertain allocations. Alien plant prioritisations rarely communicate the range of expert-opinion and here we demonstrate; (i) that opposing opinions can be prevalent, (ii) that capturing this variability is important, and (iii) how to accommodate it analytically. Using a precautionary and transparent approach, we generate a list of 201 alien species thought likely to reduce ecological restoration outcomes. This list synthesises current expertopinion and knowledge and will be used to guide conservation and restoration actions in in New South Wales, Australia.

Consensus when experts disagree: A priority list of invasive alien plant species that reduce ecological restoration success