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Total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) are used to protect water bodies based on their assimilative ability and are transferred as a maximum allowable load, which is the sum of all pollution emissions in a watershed that cannot be exceeded. This allowable load is calculated from a target water quality concentration and a flow state. The target water quality concentration is typically consistent with water quality standards; however, it is difficult to determine which flow state to use, especially for lakes and reservoirs. In this study, an exceedance probability method is established for determining the TMDL for reservoirs. The SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) was used to understand the pollution loads from the watershed, and the Vollenweider model was used to simulate the total phosphorous (TP) concentrations in the reservoir. Using the validated Vollenweider model, the relationship between pollution loads and the target TP concentration is illustrated. This relationship is associated with real changes in the reservoir water volume and is presented as the exceedance probability. In the study area (i.e., the Shiman Reservoir in Taiwan), an exceedance probability of 50% is suggested, and the allowable TP load is 22,209 kg/year when considering a target TP concentration of 20 μg/L. When considering effective management, the pollution sources in three hot spots are priorities, and controlling their point and nonpoint pollution sources can decrease TP from 25 to 22 μg/L

Using Exceedance Probability to Determine Total Maximum Daily Loads for Reservoir Water Quality Management