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In Brazil, approximately 99% of malaria cases are concentrated in the Amazon region. An acute febrile infectious disease, malaria is closely related to climatic and hydrological factors. Environmental variables such as rainfall, flow, level, and color of rivers, the latter associated with the suspended sediment concentration, are important factors that can affect the dynamics of the incidence of some infectious diseases, including malaria. This study explores the possibility that malaria incidence is influenced by precipitation, fluctuations in river levels, and suspended sediment concentration. The four studied municipalities are located in two Brazilian states (Amazonas and Pará) on the banks of rivers with different hydrological characteristics. The results suggest that precipitation and river level fluctuations modulate the seasonal pattern of the disease and evidence the existence of delayed effects of river floods on malaria incidence. The seasonality of the disease has a different influence in each municipality studied. However, municipalities close to rivers with the same characteristic color of waters (as a function of the concentration of suspended sediments) have similar responses to the disease.

Hydrological Scenarios and Malaria Incidence in the Amazonian Context