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The Vistula Lagoon is located in both Poland and Russia along the southern coast of the Baltic Sea. It is connected to the Baltic Sea in the Russian part by the Strait of Baltiysk. The purpose of the paper is to identify the dominant factors underlying the water level variation mechanism at Tolkmicko in the Vistula Lagoon, revealed by a statistical analysis of the measured data and a discussion on the inflow and outflow transport variation through the strait, estimated by numerical modeling. Seawater transport is exceptionally valuable in terms of the hydrological water balance in the lagoon. Historical research on the hydrology of the lagoon shows that the water exchange in the lagoon is quite complex due to the presence of several different sources of water balance, such as seawater inflow, river inflow, groundwater inflow, precipitation, and evaporation. Unfortunately, there are no current data on seawater inflow and outflow through the Strait of Baltiysk due to the lack of continuous flow measurements in the strait. A novelty of the current work is an in-depth statistical analysis of the water level variation in the Polish part of the lagoon over a long time period and an estimation of water transport through the Strait of Baltiysk by use of a numerical model. The model reproduces well the water level variation responding to variations in the sea level outside the lagoon and the wind action over the lagoon. The years 2008–2017 were chosen as the analysis period. A two-dimensional free surface shallow water numerical model of the lagoon was adapted to simulate the water level variation in view of the wind over the lagoon and the sea level variation at one open boundary. Finally, it was concluded that the water level variation on the Polish side of the Vistula Lagoon is dominated by two factors: the water level in the Gulf of Gdańsk and the wind over the lagoon. The average annual marine water inflow into the Vistula Lagoon was estimated to be equal to 15.87 km3.

water

Analysis of the Water Level Variation in the Polish Part of the Vistula Lagoon (Baltic Sea) and Estimation of Water Inflow and Outflow Transport through the Strait of Baltiysk in the Years 2008–2017